Chris Van Es

Slabší euro pro slabší Evropu

VÍDEŇ – Co lze udělat, aby se „krizovým ekonomikám“ v jižní Evropě pomohlo snížit jejich vnější schodky? Diskuse se často prezentuje jako střet mezi deficitem zatíženými státy PIIGS – Portugalskem, Itálií, Irskem, Řeckem a Španělskem – a zeměmi eurozóny vykazujícími přebytek běžného účtu, zejména pak Německem. V posledních letech se však objevila nová a důležitější nerovnováha: deficity obchodu a služeb zemí skupiny PIIGS s Čínou, z nichž vyplývá i možné řešení ekonomických trampot jižní Evropy, totiž silnější jüan.

Až do roku 2004 vykazovaly státy PIIGS nejvyšší deficity obchodu a služeb se zbytkem eurozóny. V roce 2005 však jejich kombinovaný deficit se zbytkem světa dosáhl 37,2 miliardy eur a o více než 4 miliardy přesáhl jejich kombinovaný deficit s ostatními členy eurozóny. V roce 2008, než vypukla nejhorší globální finanční krize, pak celosvětový deficit PIIGS dosáhl rekordních 116,5 miliard eur, z toho více než 34,8 miliard s Čínou, čímž poprvé překonal jejich deficit s Německem, a to o více než 2 miliardy eur (viz tabulku).

Klíčové je, že ačkoliv kombinovaný deficit PIIGS s Německem, eurozónou a světem se během následujících čtyř let podstatně snížil, jejich deficit s Čínou byl i nadále obrovský – 33 miliard eur v roce 2010 a 29 miliard eur v roce 2011.

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