Chris Van Es

更弱的欧洲,更弱的欧元

维也纳—什么能够帮助南欧“危机经济”减少外部债务?这场争论经常成为债务负担国PIIGS——葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙——和欧元区经常项目盈余国(特别是德国)之间的冲突。但近几年来出现了新的、更重要的失衡:PIIGS对中国的贸易和服务赤字,这提示人们一种解决欧洲经济不景气的可能办法——人民币升值。

直到2004年,PIIGS最大的贸易和服务赤字来自其他欧元区国家。但2005年,它们对世界其他地区的总赤字为372亿欧元,比它们对欧元区其他成员国总赤字多40多亿欧元。接着,2008年全球 金融危机最凶险阶段来临前,PIIGS全球赤字达到了创纪录的1165亿欧元,其中348亿赤字来自中国,首次超过了德国(相差20多亿欧元,见图)。

关键在于,尽管PIIGS对德国、欧元区和世界总赤字在2008年之后的四年大幅下降,但对中国的赤字依然很大——2010年为330亿欧元,2011年为290亿欧元。

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