Viva il rallentamento della Cina!

NEW HAVEN – Il Pil cinese frena al 7,7%. La crescita annua del Prodotto interno lordo nel primo trimestre di quest’anno è stata di fatto inferiore alle attese. Anche se i dati non sono stati catastrofici rispetto alle previsioni generali dell’8,2%, molti (incluso il sottoscritto) si aspettavano un secondo rimbalzo positivo del trimestre dal rallentamento conclusosi nel terzo trimestre del 2012. In tutto il mondo gli scettici sulla Cina sono stati rapidi a buttarsi su questo dato, esprimendo i timori di uno stallo, o persino di un temuto double dip.

Ma un rallentamento del Pil è positivo per la Cina, dato che riflette la trasformazione strutturale da tempo attesa dell’economia più dinamica del mondo. Le linee generali di questa trasformazione sono ben note: la transizione da una crescita guidata da export e investimenti a una struttura economica più incentrata sui consumi privati domestici. Meno noto è il fatto che una Cina ribilanciata debba avere un tasso di crescita più lento – i cui primi segnali potrebbero essere evidenti ora.

Una Cina ribilanciata può crescere più lentamente per una semplice ragione: traendo un maggiore supporto dalla domanda al consumo trainata dai servizi, il nuovo modello cinese abbraccerebbe una formula di sviluppo più incentrata sul lavoro. I numeri sembrano confermare questa situazione. Il settore dei servizi necessita di circa 35% di posti di lavoro in più per unità di Pil rispetto al manifatturiero e all’edilizia – i motori primari del vecchio modello.

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