Lang lebe der chinesische Konjunkturabschwung

NEW HAVEN – Chinas BIP-Wachstum ist im ersten Quartal dieses Jahres mit 7,7% niedriger ausgefallen als von vielen Beobachtern erwartet. Und obwohl die Daten im Vergleich zur Konsensprognose von 8,2% nicht gerade verheerend ausfielen, hatten viele (ich eingeschlossen) nach der Konjunkturverlangsamung, die im dritten Quartal 2012 geendet zu sein schien, ein zweites Quartal der Erholung erwartet. Chinazweifler überall auf der Welt stürzten sich auf die Zahl und äußerten ihre Befürchtungen eines Wachstumsstillstands oder sogar einer gefürchteten w-förmigen Rezession.

Dabei ist ein langsameres BIP-Wachstum sogar gut für China, vorausgesetzt, es spiegelt den lang erwarteten Strukturwandel der dynamischsten Volkswirtschaft der Welt wider. Die breiten Umrisse dieses Wandels sind bekannt: eine Verlagerung weg von einem export- und investitionsorientierten Wachstum hin zu einer Wirtschaftsstruktur, die sich stärker auf den privaten Konsum im Lande stützt. Weniger bekannt ist, dass China nach einer derartigen Neuorientierung eine niedrigere Wachstumsrate haben dürfte – möglicherweise sind derzeit deren erste Anzeichen zu beobachten.

China kann nach einer derartigen Neuausrichtung aus einem simplen Grund langsamer wachsen: Ein neues Modell, das verstärkt auf eine dienstleistungsgestützte Nachfrage setzt, impliziert ein arbeitsintensiveres Wachstumsrezept. Die Zahlen scheinen dies zu bestätigen. Chinas Dienstleistungssektor erfordert etwa 35% mehr Arbeitsplätze pro Einheit vom BIP als die produzierende Industrie und das Baugewerbe (die primären Treiber des alten Modells).

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