中国经济放缓万岁

发自纽黑文——今年第一季度中国7.7%的年GDP增长率比很多人预计的要缓慢得多。虽然这一数据相对普遍8.2%的预测来说并不是灾难性的,但很多人(包括我)都预计这次放缓——这种放缓似乎在2012年第三季度就已经结束了——后出现连续性的二次反弹。而世界各地的中国怀疑论者则迅速针对这一数据大做文章,担心经济停滞甚至出现可怕的二次衰退。

但假如能反映出全世界最活跃的经济体已经出现期待已久的结构性改革的话,较为缓慢的GDP增长对中国来说就是件好事。这个改革的大轮廓是众所周知的——即从出口及投资导向型经济增长向由更多国内个人消费支撑的经济结构过渡。更不为人所知的是重新平衡后的中国增长率应该更低——其第一批暗示迹象如今已经成为了现实。

重新调整过的中国会因为一个简单的原因而增长得更慢:即通过不断拉动服务主导的消费者需求,中国的新模式将会迎来一个更加劳动密集型的增长模式。这些数据似乎证实了这一点。中国的服务业每创造一个单位的GDP要比制造业和建筑业——这是旧模式中最主要的驱动力——所需的劳动要多35%。

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