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量化流沙

匹兹堡—几乎所有衰退后的复苏都伴随着快速的就业增长——目前除外。尽管发达国家央行面对全球经济危机采取了扩张性货币政策以提振需求,就业创造始终萎靡不振。结果,日益感到自己无法找到持续工作的工人正在陆续离开劳动力市场。

这一现象在美国最为明显,美联储将利率降至前所未有的低水平,并通过量化宽松购买金融资产从而扩大了银行准备金。但通货膨胀——应该是快速货币供给扩张的必然结果——至今仍然不见起色,维持在2%左右,这是因为银行并没有用增加的准备金扩大信用、增加流动性。尽管这让物价免于波动,但也阻碍了就业增长。

但是,美联储并没有改变方针,而是以增加一轮又一轮量化宽松应对就业增长缓慢的问题。显然,美联储的考虑是,既然增加2万多亿美元还不能形成渴望的结果,那么每个月再增加850亿美元——今年再增1万亿——可能就会有所成效吧。

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