Schwierige Lockerung

NEW YORK – Die Entscheidung der US-Notenbank (Fed), eine dritte Runde der quantitativen Lockerung („QE3“) einzuleiten, hat drei wichtige Fragen aufgeworfen. Wird die QE3 Amerikas blutleeres Wirtschaftswachstum auf Touren bringen? Wird sie zu einem anhaltenden Anstieg der Preise riskanter Vermögenswerte führen, insbesondere an den US- und anderen globalen Aktienmärkten? Und schließlich, werden ihre Auswirkungen auf das BIP-Wachstum und die Aktienmärkte ähnlich ausfallen wie vorher oder anders?

Man hört derzeit häufig, dass die Auswirkungen der QE3 auf riskante Vermögenswerte mindestens ebenso stark sein dürften wie jene der QE1, der QE2 und der „Operation Twist“, einem früheren Programm der Fed zum Ankauf von Staatsanleihen. Schließlich waren alle bisherigen Runden mit einem anhaltenden Anstieg der Aktienkurse verbunden; Umfang und Laufzeit der QE3 jedoch sind größer. Trotz des beeindruckenden Bekenntnisses der Fed zu einer aggressiven Lockerung der Geldpolitik freilich könnten die Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft und die US-Aktien diesmal geringer und kurzfristiger ausfallen, als es bei den bisherigen QE-Runden der Fall war.

Erstens fanden die bisherigen QE-Runden zu Zeiten statt, in denen die Aktienbewertungen und -erträge deutlich niedriger waren. Im März 2009 stand der S&P 500 Index bei nur 660 Punkten, der Gewinn je Aktie der US-amerikanischen Unternehmen und Banken war finanzkrislich bedingt auf einen Tiefstand gefallen, und die Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnisse wiesen einstellige Werte auf. Heute steht der S&P 500 mehr als 100% höher (er verharrt derzeit bei rund 1430 Punkten), der durchschnittliche Gewinn pro Aktie liegt bei nahezu 100 US-Dollar, und die KGVs liegen über 14.

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