难以宽松

发自纽约——美联储实施第三轮量化宽松(QE3)的决定引出了三大重要问题:QE3能否紧急启动美国当前乏力的经济增长?它是否会导致风险资产的持续增长,尤其是在美国以及其他全球股票市场?最后,其对GDP增长和股票市场的影响将会相似还是有所不同?

许多人如今认为QE3对风险资产的影响应该与第一轮(QE1),第二轮量化宽松(QE2)以及美联储早前的债券购买计划“扭曲操作(Operation Twist)”具备同样威力(如果不是更大的话)。毕竟以股票价格计算的话,QE3的规模和持续时间都更具实质性。但尽管美联储实施积极货币宽松的许诺非常引人注目,但此举对实体经济和美股的影响可能比前两轮的都要更小也更短暂。

首先,考虑到以往的宽松政策都是在股票估值和收益都更加低的时候推出。在2009年3月,标准普尔500指数下跌到660点,美国企业和银行的每股收益率都降到了危机以来的最低点,市盈率降到了单数。如今,标准普尔500指数已经翻了超过一番(接近1430点),平均每股收益率约有100美元,市盈率超过了14。

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