奥巴马在叙利亚艰难的成功之路

纽约——以我的经验,如果左右翼势力、鸽派和鹰派、国际主义者和孤立主义者同时攻击你的外交政策,那么你的政策可能恰到好处。在对本月美俄叙利亚化武交易雪片般的评论中,很少有人认为这是美国、俄国和叙利亚民众共赢的结果。但至少从目前看,恰恰出现了这样的状况。虽然有些失误,但大部分功劳应当归结于奥巴马总统及其团队。

奥巴马在叙利亚有很多可以指责的东西。人人都说美国在100,000叙利亚民众面临死亡时没有采取果断行动,也没有拿出结束冲突的策略。奥巴马创造了启用化学武器就会招致美国军事行动的预期,但那一刻真正到来时却又找出各种托辞。之后,当不可避免要做出反应时,他总是言辞威胁,却极少诉诸武力。他先是太不注重、之后又太过注重国内反对干预的势力。最重要的是,他让玩世不恭的克里姆林在外交上抢占了先机。

但我们必须考虑到其中的诸多限制。直到化武问题爆发之前,美国军事干预在危机中害人的机率从来都大于救人的机率。圣战者在叛军队伍中的影响日益扩大让反对派获得全胜的可能性越来越小。至少在叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德在8月的古塔(Ghouta)大屠杀中使用化学武器之前,无论是在联合国安理会还是全球舆情领域,根本没有足够的铁证能够迫使俄国重新考虑其对阿萨德政权的习惯性支持。

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