Por qué sobrevive Musharraf

Las recientes amenazas de parte de la administración Bush de recortar miles de millones de dólares en ayuda a Pakistán generaron pánico en los círculos oficiales. Por otra parte, según el embajador paquistaní en Washington, los ataques militares norteamericanos contra refugios de Al-Qaeda y de los talibanes dentro de las zonas tribales paquistaníes desestabilizarían a Pakistán y "posiblemente derrocarían al general Pervez Musharraf". Ahora bien, ¿cuán preocupadas deben estar, realmente, las autoridades paquistaníes frente a la creciente presión norteamericana para erradicar a los militantes islámicos?

Dejando de lado las frustraciones ocasionales, en realidad es improbable que Estados Unidos se manifieste en contra de un aliado fiel –y dependiente-, en especial un aliado cuyo líder mantiene relaciones personales cordiales con Bush. Y, por una falta de oposición organizada, el enojo público frente a la política pro-norteamericana de Musharraf tampoco desestabilizará a su régimen. De hecho, el artero general-presidente no sólo sobrevive a una crisis tras otra, sino que se fortaleció en el poder.

¿Cómo lo hace? La respuesta reside en una estrategia finamente pulida, perfeccionada con el correr de los años, que contemporiza entre las demandas norteamericanas y los intereses de los jefes de inteligencia locales, los mullahs, los líderes tribales, los políticos venales y una serie de cazafortunas. Redes de intriga y protagonistas sombríos oscurecen los detalles, pero las prioridades son inconfundibles.

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