La stratégie de Mucharraf

Les menaces de suppression par le gouvernement Bush de plusieurs milliards de dollars d’aide au Pakistan ont semé la panique chez les dirigeants politiques. D’après l’ambassadeur pakistanais à Washington, des frappes militaires américaines contre les bases d’Al-Qaida et des Talibans dans les régions tribales du Pakistan déstabiliseraient le pays et pourraient même provoquer la chute du Général Pervez Mucharraf. Dans quelle mesure les autorités pakistanaises doivent-elles vraiment s’inquiéter face à la pression croissante exercée par les Etats-Unis pour éradiquer les militants islamistes ?

Malgré quelques déboires, il est peu probable que les Etats-Unis se retournent contre un allié fidèle et dépendant, dont le dirigeant entretient des rapports chaleureux avec le Président Bush. Faute d’organisation des forces d’opposition, la colère provoquée par la politique proaméricaine de Mucharraf ne devrait pas non plus entraîner le renversement du régime. Ce général-président rusé surmonte toutes les crises, et le pouvoir semble même lui réussir.

Comment fait-il ? Grâce à une stratégie délicate, aiguisée au fil du temps, il parvient à composer avec les exigences américaines et les intérêts des responsables locaux du renseignement, avec des mollahs, des chefs de clans, des politiciens véreux et tout un tas d’opportunistes. C’est le règne de l’intrigue et des sombres manipulations, mais les intentions de Mucharraf ne font aucun doute.

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