穆沙拉夫为何能安全渡过危机

不久前布什政府威胁要切断对巴基斯坦成百上千亿美元的援助,这在巴基斯坦的政要当中引起了恐慌。同样,按照巴基斯坦驻华盛顿大使的看法,美国针对巴部落控制区内基地组织和塔利班庇护所的军事打击会导致巴基斯坦局势动荡,并“可能造成[佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫将军]倒台。”可是,面对美国铲除伊斯兰好战分子与日俱增的压力,巴基斯坦政府应该表现出多大的忧虑?

尽管偶尔也会遇到挫折,但美国不太可能抛弃一个忠诚、驯服的盟友,特别是在该国领导人与布什个人关系亲密的情况下更不可能这么做。由于缺乏有组织的反抗运动,对穆沙拉夫亲美政策的公众义愤也不会对巴基斯坦政府造成威胁。事实上,这位老谋深算的将军总统不仅在度过一次又一次的危机后安然无恙,而且手中的权力还与日俱增。

他是怎么做到的?谜底是一套精心制定的策略,在岁月的打磨下愈加成熟。这套策略能够平衡美国的要求、当地情报大佬、毛拉、部落首领、贪污政客和一班财富追求者之间的利益。阴谋家编织的网络使人无从知晓详细情况,但孰重孰轻却不容混淆。

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