Paul Lachine

扳下OMT扳机

芝加哥—自欧洲央行行长德拉吉7月“竭尽所能”演讲以及欧洲央行9月决定采取“直接货币交易”(OMT)买入受困欧元区成员国政府债券后,欧洲经历着稳定期。意大利和西班牙政府的利差大幅下降,公司债券发行重现江湖,欧洲大陆也开始逐渐弥漫恢复正常的感觉。

但这样就认为欧元问题已被解决是愚蠢的。经济基本面远远称不上稳定,尽管预期游戏产生了财政压力纾解的幸运效果。只要投资者认为意大利和西班牙最终能够被OMT所救,这些国家的借贷成本就将保持低位,救援也就没有必要实施。不过,如果人们对OMT的作用产生哪怕是最轻微的质疑,预期游戏就将向相反的地方发展,两国债券将马上受到攻击。

质疑原因之一的OMT的安全阀装置。为了使其可操作,所有欧洲国家政府都必须批准它。各个欧盟国家的规则各不相同,但在德国,“政府批准”意味着议会批准。在紧急情况下,很难想象德国会放任意大利或西班牙违约而不批准OMT。但是,任何拖延都有可能足以出发意大利或西班牙的银行挤兑。到德国议会作出决定的时候,说不定一切都太晚了。

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