Comments 4

扳下OMT扳机

Nov 30, 2012 Luigi Zingales

芝加哥—自欧洲央行行长德拉吉7月“竭尽所能”演讲以及欧洲央行9月决定采取“直接货币交易”（OMT）买入受困欧元区成员国政府债券后，欧洲经历着稳定期。意大利和西班牙政府的利差大幅下降，公司债券发行重现江湖，欧洲大陆也开始逐渐弥漫恢复正常的感觉。

但这样就认为欧元问题已被解决是愚蠢的。经济基本面远远称不上稳定，尽管预期游戏产生了财政压力纾解的幸运效果。只要投资者认为意大利和西班牙最终能够被OMT所救，这些国家的借贷成本就将保持低位，救援也就没有必要实施。不过，如果人们对OMT的作用产生哪怕是最轻微的质疑，预期游戏就将向相反的地方发展，两国债券将马上受到攻击。

质疑原因之一的OMT的安全阀装置。为了使其可操作，所有欧洲国家政府都必须批准它。各个欧盟国家的规则各不相同，但在德国，“政府批准”意味着议会批准。在紧急情况下，很难想象德国会放任意大利或西班牙违约而不批准OMT。但是，任何拖延都有可能足以出发意大利或西班牙的银行挤兑。到德国议会作出决定的时候，说不定一切都太晚了。

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Luigi Zingales

Writing for PS since 2008
23 Commentaries

Luigi Zingales is the Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and serves on the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation. He is also a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a research fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research, and a fellow of the European Governance Institute. He is the author of A Capitalism for the People: Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 in all 4 Comments on this article

nicola perali Dec 7, 2012

On the contrary I agree with Mr Zingales arguments and as such I believe he did not neglect the conditionality problem. If Mr Monts or whoever for him in the next future waits too much and recession - very likely so -deepens, eventual conditions will be far harsher than the conditions the prime minsiter would obtain at today's situation. He would probably get guidelines to stay on his course. Meanwhile, interest cost would lower at a faster pace.
Ronald Lattuf Dec 6, 2012

Mr. Zingales, I would argue you're being over-optimistic about the benefits of an early OMT intervention. There is an element that you do not mention in your article that may be the main reason why it has not been requested by countries such as Spain or Portugal. If they file for it, there will be a strict conditionality attached to it, and continued support by the ECB will be strictly dependent on the beneficiary's ability to stick to the conditions. Shall one of these countries not follow these conditions, support would be withdrawn and that would be the end of the game for OMT interventions.
Marco Cattaneo Dec 2, 2012

"In the 1930’s, all European governments feared that breaking from the gold standard would be perceived as a sign of weakness." Zingales fails to see that breaking from the gold standard was the 1930's equivalent of breaking from the euro today.
"Pulling the OMT trigger" would imply accepting "conditionality" ie further austerity - an avenue proven to be counterproductive (to put it mildly).
Zingales dismisses "Grillo's movement as an anti-euro party, run by a professional comedian". It actually is the only major Italian political force where the faults of the european monetary system are clearly recognized and solutions (including but not limited to an euro exit) are proposed and discussed.
Michael Heller Dec 1, 2012

Luigi, my blog post at Project Syndicate today is a little critical of this article. Usually I’m a great supporter. However I don’t see how it’s possible to discuss uncertainty about OMT without at least mentioning the uncertainty about conditions which must essentially attach to OMT. Possibly you see structural reform and conditionality as subtext of your support for preemptive OMT. I and many Europeans would put them in bold!