ISIS Haidar Hamdani/Getty Images

Почему ИГИЛ ещё существует?

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Ужасные теракты в Стамбуле, Дакке и Багдаде демонстрируют кровавый размах Исламского государства (ИГИЛ) – Европа, Северная Африка, Ближний Восток, страны Азии. Чем дольше ИГИЛ будет удерживать свои опорные пункты в Сирии и Ираке, тем дольше его террористическая сеть будет устраивать подобные бойни. Но ИГИЛ вовсе не трудно победить. Проблема в том, что ни одно из государств, вовлечённых в дела Ирака и Сирии, в том числе США и их союзники, не признаёт ИГИЛ своим главным противником. Пора им это сделать.

Боевые силы ИГИЛ невелики. США оценивают их в 20 000 – 25 000 в Ираке и Сирии, плюс около 5 000 в Ливии. В сравнении с численностью действующих армий Сирии (125 000), Ирака (271 500), Саудовской Аравии (233 500), Турции (510 600) или Ирана (523 000) силы ИГИЛ ничтожны.

Хотя ещё в сентябре 2014 года президент США Барака Обамы пообещал «ослабить и в конечном итоге уничтожить ИГИЛ», Соединённые Штаты и их союзники, в том числе Саудовская Аравия, Турция и (за кулисами) Израиль, сосредоточились вместо этого на свержении сирийского режима Башара Асада. Возьмите, к примеру, недавнее искреннее заявление израильского генерал-майора Херци Халеви (его процитировал мне журналист, который присутствовал при этом выступлении Халеви): «Израиль не хочет, чтобы ситуация в Сирии закончилась тем, что ИГИЛ разгромлен, супердержавы ушли из региона, а Израиль остался с «Хезболлой» и Ираном, у которых возрос потенциал».

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