美国预算赤字为何如此之巨?

坎布里奇——

从预算赤字占国民收入比重的角度看,比美国情况更糟的主要国家只有希腊和埃及了。平心而论,美国相当于GDP的9.1%的经常项目赤字有一部分要归咎于由衰退自动引发的效应。但是,从美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的官方预测来看,即使美国经济恢复到充分就业状态,赤字规模仍将维持在很高水平,未来十余年内美国国民债务-GDP比率将持续上升。

要理解美国如何才能达到财政整合的目标,就必须理解为何预算赤字预测额如此之高。在将目光转向未来赤字预测值之前,我们先来回顾一下奥巴马总统执政头两年所发生的事情——他的一系列政策将赤字占GDP的比重从2008年的3.2%提高到了2010年的8.9%(受此影响,国民债务-GDP比率从40%提高到了62%)。

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