Por qué India presenta más riesgos que China

NEW HAVEN – En la actualidad, se acrecienta el temor de que China e India estén a punto de ser las próximas víctimas de la masacre en curso de la economía mundial. Esto tendría enormes consecuencias. Las economías en desarrollo y recientemente industrializadas del Asia crecieron a una tasa promedio anual del 8,5% durante los años 2010 y 2011, lo que casi triplica el crecimiento del 3%  del resto del mundo. Si China e India son los próximos países en caer, Asia podría estar en riesgo, y sería difícil evitar una recesión mundial.

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En un determinado y a la vez importante sentido estas preocupaciones son comprensibles: las dos economías dependen en gran medida de un clima económico global más amplio. China es sensible a los riesgos a una baja en la demanda exterior; estos riesgos ahora son más relevantes que nunca ya que los Estados Unidos y Europa, que se encuentran devastados por la crisis, en su conjunto representan el 38% del total de exportaciones durante el año 2010. Pero India, con su gran déficit en su balanza por cuenta corriente y sus necesidades de financiamiento externo, está más expuesta a las duras condiciones de los mercados financieros globales.

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