为什么印度风险高于中国

纽黑文——今天,中印两国将成为当前全球经济大屠杀下一个受害者的担忧正越来越强。这将产生严重的后果。亚洲发展中国家及新兴工业化经济体2010-2011年度经济平均年增长速度为8.5%——接近世界其他地方3%的三倍之多。如果中印两国经济下滑,亚洲将会陷入危险之中,而且全球经济衰退也将很难避免。

从中印经济严重依赖于总体全球环境这个重要意义上,这样的担心是可以理解的。中国对外部需求的下行风险十分敏感——受危机蹂躏的欧洲和美国共同占据了2010年度出口总额的38%。而印度则因其庞大的经常账户赤字和外部资金需求而更多地受到全球金融市场的影响。

但是两国经济硬着陆的担忧被过分夸大,特别是关于中国。的确,中国正在为其在次贷危机中激进的经济刺激政策而付出代价。大部分额外支出来自于银行系统,银行因此可能出现由上述措施所导致的信贷质量恶化。此外还存在有关房地产市场泡沫化和通胀持续攀升的担忧。

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