Paul Lachine

Perché la ripresa americana stenta?

CAMBRIDGE – Le importazioni degli Stati Uniti ammontano oggi a più di 2.400 miliardi di dollari l'anno, più del doppio di quelle della Cina e ancora di più della somma dei 27 paesi dell'Unione Europea. Dato che il volume delle importazioni degli Stati Uniti dipende dallo stato generale dell'economia americana, questa ha un impatto anche sul volume delle esportazioni degli altri paesi.

È stata quindi una buona notizia per tutti quando l'economia americana ha ricominciato a crescere nell'estate del 2009, 19 mesi dopo il suo ingresso ufficiale in recessione, datato dicembre 2007. Sfortunatamente, la ripresa si è dimostrata molto anemica. Adesso, a 15 mesi dall'inizio dell'espansione, il livello del PIL in termini reali è ancora inferiore al suo valore all’inizio della recessione.

Ciò che è ancora più preoccupante è che il tasso di crescita del PIL continua a diminuire praticamente dall’inizio della ripresa. Il PIL in termini reali è cresciuto del 5% nel quarto trimestre del 2009, reagendo alla fine del declino delle scorte. La crescita del PIL è quindi passata al 3,7% nel primo trimestre del 2010 e ad appena l'1,7% nel secondo trimestre. Il terzo trimestre si appresta ad essere molto simile al secondo.

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