Paul Lachine

Warum ist Amerikas Wirtschaftsaufschwung ins Stocken geraten?

CAMBRIDGE – Die Importkosten der Vereinigten Staaten betragen derzeit über 2,4 Billionen US-Dollar pro Jahr, mehr als zweimal so hoch wie die Chinas und höher als die der 27 Länder der Europäischen Union zusammengenommen. Da das Volumen der US-Importe mit der Gesamtstärke der amerikanischen Wirtschaft schwankt, gilt dies auch für das Exportvolumen anderer Länder.

Also war es eine freudige Nachricht für alle, als die US-Wirtschaft im Sommer 2009 anfing zu expandieren, 19 Monate nachdem sie in die Rezession gefallen war, die offiziell im Dezember 2007 begonnen hatte. Leider hat sich die Erholung als äußerst schwach herausgestellt. Nun, wo die Expansion seit 15 Monaten anhält, ist das Niveau des realen BIP immer noch niedriger als zu Beginn der Rezession.

Was noch beunruhigender ist: Die Rate des BIP-Wachstums ist nahezu seit dem Beginn der Erholung gesunken. Das reale BIP stieg im vierten Quartal 2009 um 5 %, was das Ende der sinkenden Warenbestände widerspiegelte. Das BIP-Wachstum fiel dann im ersten Quartal 2010 auf 3,7 % und im zweiten Quartal auf lediglich 1,7 %. Das dritte Quartal sieht derzeit ganz ähnlich aus wie das zweite.

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