Paul Lachine

Menaces sur le redressement économique américain

CAMBRIDGE –La facture des importations américaines s'élève à 2400 milliards de dollars par an, soit plus de deux fois celles de la Chine plus celles des 27 pays de l'UE. Et comme les importations des USA varient en fonction de l'état de leur économie, il en est de même des exportations des autres pays.

La reprise de l'économie américaine intervenue au cours de l'été l'année dernière a donc été accueillie avec un soupir de soulagement dans le monde entier, 19 mois après le début de la récession qui a débuté officiellement en décembre 2007. Malheureusement cette reprise est anémique. Aujourd'hui, après un an et trois mois d'expansion, le PIB réel reste inférieur à ce qu'il était au début de la récession.

Plus inquiétant, son taux de croissance est en baisse quasiment constante depuis le début de la reprise. Du fait de la fin de la baisse des stocks, la croissance du PIB réel a été de 5% au cours du quatrième trimestre 2009, mais elle a ensuite chuté à 3,7% au cours du premier trimestre 2010, pour atteindre 1,7% au cours du deuxième trimestre. Et la situation ne devrait guère évoluer au cours du troisième trimestre.

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