Paul Lachine

Para entender por qué quebrará Grecia

CAMBRIDGE – Grecia supenderá el pago de su deuda nacional. Esa quiebra se deberá en gran parte a su pertenencia a la Unión Monetaria Europa. Si no formara parte del sistema del euro, Grecia podría no haberse visto en su actual aprieto y, aun cuando así hubiera sido, podría haberse librado de la necesidad de suspender pagos.

La suspensión del pago de su deuda nacional por parte de Grecia no tiene por qué significar una negativa explícita a hacer los pagos de los intereses y del principal cuando venzan. Más probable sería una reestructuración de la deuda vigente organizada por el FMI, permutando los bonos vigentes por nuevos bonos con intereses y principal inferiores o podría ser “una quiebra suave”, en la que Grecia saldara unilateralmente su deuda vigente con nueva deuda en lugar de pagando en efectivo, pero, sea cual fuere la forma que revista la quiebra, los actuales titulares de deuda griega recibirán menos de la cantidad total que ahora se les debe.

La única forma como Grecia podría evitar la quiebra sería la de reducir sus futuros déficits presupuestarios anuales hasta un nivel que los inversores nacionales y extranjeros estuvieran dispuestos a financiar con carácter voluntario. Como mínimo, eso significaría reducir el déficit a un nivel que detuviera el aumento del coeficiente deuda-PIB.

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