Paul Lachine

Perché la Grecia non pagherà i debiti

CAMBRIDGE – La Grecia non riuscirà ad onorare il suo debito nazionale. Questo default sarà in larga misura dovuto all’appartenenza del paese all’Unione monetaria europea. Se non avesse fatto parte dell’area euro, la Grecia avrebbe potuto evitare di trovarsi in questo guaio e, anche se vi si fosse trovata, avrebbe potuto evitare la necessità di gettare la spugna.

Il default della Grecia  non implica un rifiuto esplicito di effettuare i pagamenti sia sul capitale che sugli interessi alle date in scadenza. Verosimilmente si tratterrà di  una ristrutturazione pilotata dal Fondo monetario del debito esistente, sostituendo nuovi titoli a capitale e interessi più bassi rispetto a quelli ora esistenti. O potrebbe trattarsi di un “default strisciante”  con cui la Grecia in modo unilaterale fa fronte con nuovo debito alle scadenze del debito esistente. Ma, quale che sarà la formula adottata, i detentori di titoli del debito greco otterranno meno di quanto al momento attuale dovrebbero ottenere.

L’unico modo per la Grecia di poter continuare a onorare il debito sarebbe quello di ridurre così drasticamente i propri deficit annuali di bilancio da spingere gli investitori interni ed esteri a fornire capitali su base volontaria. L’obiettivo minimo sarebbe quello di ridurre il deficit a un livello che congela la crescita del rapporto fra debito e Pil.

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