Paul Lachine

Pourquoi la Grèce fera défaut sur sa dette

CAMBRIDGE – La Grèce fera défaut sur sa dette publique. Et cela en grande partie du fait de son appartenance à l’Union Monétaire Européenne. Si elle n’appartenait pas à cette union, la Grèce ne se serait peut-être pas retrouvée dans cette situation difficile et même si elle s’était effectivement retrouvée dans cette difficile situation, elle aurait pu éviter de faire défaut.

Le défaut de la Grèce sur sa dette nationale ne signifie pas forcément un refus d’honorer le principal et l’intérêt aux échéances prévues. Il est plus probable qu’une restructuration de sa dette actuelle sera organisée par le FMI, par l’émission de nouvelles obligations au principal et à l’intérêt plus faibles en échange des anciennes déjà émises. Ou cela pourrait être un « défaut en douceur » par lequel la Grèce rembourserait unilatéralement sa dette existante par une nouvelle dette, plutôt qu’en liquide. Mais quelque que soit la forme que prendra ce défaut de paiement, les actuels détenteurs de la dette grecque recevront beaucoup moins que le montant total dont ils sont actuellement détenteurs.

La seule manière pour la Grèce d’éviter un défaut de paiement serait de réduire ses déficits budgétaires annuels à venir à un niveau tel qu’il suffirait à convaincre les investisseurs grecs et internationaux de la financer sur la base du volontariat. Au minimum, cela reviendrait à réduire le déficit au point d’inverser la tendance haussière du rapport de la dette sur le PIB.

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