Paul Lachine

为什么希腊会违约?

坎布里奇——

希腊国债会违约。违约的主要原因在于它是欧洲货币联盟的成员。如果没有加入欧元区,希腊或许会有货币危机的出现,但可以避免违约。

希腊国债违约的形式倒不是支付不起到期的本金和利息。很有可能是IMF的重组方案,对现有较低利率债券再融资的形式。也就是所谓的“软性违约”,即单方面地以新债券代替现有的债券,而不支付现金。但是,不管何种形式的违约,债权人不会得到全部赔偿。

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