Il dilemma della Germania

NEW YORK – L’Europa si trova in una crisi finanziaria dal 2007. Quando la bancarotta di Lehman Brothers mise in pericolo il credito delle istituzioni finanziarie, il credito privato venne sostituito dal credito pubblico, rivelando un inevitabile difetto nell’euro. Nel trasferire il diritto di stampare moneta alla Banca centrale europea (Bce), gli Stati membri si sono esposti al rischio di default, come i Paesi del Terzo Mondo fortemente indebitati in una moneta estera. Le banche commerciali sovraccariche di titoli di Stato dei Paesi più deboli sono diventate potenzialmente insolventi.

C’è un parallelismo tra l’attuale crisi dell’euro e la crisi bancaria internazionale del 1982. Allora il Fondo monetario internazionale salvò il sistema bancario mondiale prestando denaro a sufficienza ai Paesi fortemente indebitati; il default fu evitato, ma a scapito di una depressione prolungata. L’America latina visse un decennio perduto.

La Germania gioca oggi lo stesso ruolo che un tempo fu del Fmi. Il setting cambia, ma l’effetto è la stesso. I creditori stanno spostando l’intero peso dell’aggiustamento sui Paesi debitori, sfuggendo alle proprie responsabilità.

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