La disconnessione della Francia

PARIGI – Quando un Paese versa in condizioni disastrose, temi un tempo ritenuti impensabili possono finire al centro del dibattito pubblico. In Francia, in questo momento, sta guadagnando terreno l'idea che il Paese sprofonderà in una crisi economica ancora più grave a meno che non ritrovi la propria sovranità monetaria.

Due sorprendenti dichiarazioni rilasciate dai leader francesi all'inizio di quest'anno evidenziano la forza di questo ragionamento. In primo luogo, il presidente François Hollande, preoccupato per l'apprezzamento dell'euro rispetto alle principali valute mondiali, ha chiesto un obiettivo dei tassi di cambio. Successivamente, Pierre Moscovici, ministro delle finanze, ha annunciato che l'Europa potrebbe concedere alla Francia una proroga al termine fissato per l'obiettivo di disavanzo del Pil al 3%, imposto a partire da quest'anno sulla base del Fiscal compact appena ratificato.

Queste posizioni sottintendono la volontà di esercitare il potere sovrano sulle norme e sulle decisioni dell'Unione economica e monetaria. Nel 1989-1991, questo stesso motivo spinse il presidente François Mitterrand a imporre l'euro alla Germania, legando così il potere monetario della Bundesbank a un quadro di riferimento in cui la Francia era sicura di esercitare un'influenza determinante. Dal momento che la moneta unica era la condizione imposta dai francesi per accettare la riunificazione tedesca, la Germania accettò le condizioni del gioco. A distanza di vent'anni, però, la sua prospettiva potrebbe essere cambiata.

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