法国的单飞

发自巴黎——极端的情况可以让原本不可想象的事情变成公众议题。而在法国,一个大胆出格的说法就是除非恢复其货币主权,否则就将陷入比以往任何时候都更深层次的经济萎缩之中。

法国领导人在今年最初的那几周里发表的两个引人注目的经济政策声明突显了上述逻辑的力量。首先,总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(François Hollande)担心欧元会对其他世界主要货币升值,并呼吁设定汇率目标。然后财政部长皮埃尔·莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)说虽然欧元区最近通过的财政契约规定从今年开始各国预算赤字都不得超过GDP的 3%,但欧洲也许会允许法国推迟兑现这一目标。

这些声明意味着法国有意对经济与货币联盟的规则和决策行使主权权力。回顾1989~1991年间,时任法国总统的弗朗索·密特朗(François Mitterrand)基于同样的动机强行向德国推销欧元——就是要用法国有信心发挥起决定性影响的框架来束缚住德国央行的货币实力。由于单一货币是当年法国接受德国统一的条件,德国只好照办。时隔二十年后,德国人的想法可能已经不一样了。

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