Fan made in China.

Si fa in Cina la Politica Monetaria degli Stati Uniti?

AMSTERDAM – Per gran parte dell’anno, gli investitori sono stati ossessionati dal momento in cui la Fed avvierà il “liftoff” – cioè, il momento in cui innalzerà i tassi di interesse di 25 punti base, o di 0,25%, come primo passo verso la normalizzazione delle condizioni monetarie. I mercati sono saliti alle stelle e sono crollati in risposta a piccoli cambiamenti nelle dichiarazioni della Fed considerate espressioni della probabilità dell’imminenza del liftoff.

Ma, nel cercare di valutare i cambiamenti nelle condizioni monetarie statunitensi, gli investitori hanno continuato a guardare nel posto sbagliato. Da metà agosto, allorché i politici cinesi hanno fatto trasalire i mercati svalutando il renminbi del 2%, l’intervento ufficiale della Cina nei mercati dei cambi è proseguito, al fine di evitare ulteriori deprezzamenti della moneta. Le autorità cinesi hanno venduto titoli esteri, prevalentemente obbligazioni del Tesoro degli Stati Uniti, e acquistato renminbi.

L’opposto di quello che la Cina ha fatto quando il renminbi era forte. Allora, la Cina acquistava titoli del Tesoro USA per impedire rialzi della moneta e quindi l’erosione della competitività degli esportatori cinesi. Di conseguenza, ha accumulato l’incredibile ammontare di 4 mila miliardi di dollari di riserve in valuta estera.

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