A Década Europeia dos Perdidos e Achados

BRUXELAS – As perspectivas nos mercados financeiros europeus transformaram-se. Por enquanto, está descartada a possibilidade de a Grécia sair da zona euro. Se nos guiarmos pelos diferenciais das taxas de juro das obrigações da dívida pública espanhola e italiana, podemos afirmar que os obrigacionistas já não apostam numa ruptura da zona do euro. Chegou mesmo a registar-se uma subida das acções europeias, uma semana após as eleições inconclusivas em Itália, que decorreram no mês passado.

Aparentemente os investidores acreditam que os líderes europeus farão os esforços suficientes para manter a sua união monetária. Mas, ao mesmo tempo, é pouco provável que a economia da Europa siga o padrão das crises dos mercados emergentes e que se erga das cinzas como uma fénix. Em vez disso, o cenário mais provável parece ser uma década perdida, ao estilo japonês, de crescimento lento ou de ausência de crescimento.

O primeiro obstáculo ao "milagre da fénix" é o facto de os governos continuarem num contexto de austeridade. É verdade que há rumores de que o ritmo de consolidação orçamental poderá ser abrandado; de facto, já foi concedido mais tempo a França para a consecução do objectivo em termos de défice. Mas esta situação assemelha-se bastante ao que aconteceu no Japão, onde a torneira orçamental foi provisoriamente aberta e fechada. Os consumidores japoneses sabiam que os aumentos nas despesas públicas eram temporários e, por esse motivo, não alteraram os seus hábitos de consumo, tornando ineficaz aquela medida.

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