Chris Van Es

La necessità di haircut automatici per l’Europa

MONACO – Dopo aver deciso di raddoppiare la capacità di prestito a tripla A del Fondo salva-stati (European Financial Stability Facility, Efsf), nato per soccorrere i paesi membri in difficoltà, i paesi dell’Unione europea stanno ora discutendo le condizioni tramite le quali mettere a disposizione tali fondi. La questione cruciale verte sui margini entro cui i creditori dovranno partecipare alle misure di salvataggio, rinunciando a parte delle pretese finanziarie sottoforma di “haircut”.

I rappresentanti dei paesi iper-indebitati e dei paesi le cui banche sono fortemente esposte come creditori, sostengono che gli “haircut” destabilizzerebbero il sistema finanziario europeo, generando un effetto contagio pari a una seconda crisi Lehman Brothers. Tuttavia, l’Eeag (European Economic Advisory Group), un gruppo di economisti coordinato dal CESifo di Monaco, provenienti da sette paesi europei, ha respinto tale visione nel suo ultimo rapporto, appena pubblicato a Bruxelles.

Il gruppo sostiene che un’altra crisi del tipo “Lehman” non potrà avvenire per il semplice fatto che è già avvenuta. Nell’ottobre del 2008, un mese dopo il crack Lehman, i paesi del G8 si sono accordati per salvare tutte le banche importanti a livello sistemico, mentre venivano istituiti in tutto il mondo fondi di salvataggio per 4,9 trilioni di euro (6,7 trilioni di dollari) – tuttora ampiamente intatti. Qualora una di queste banche dovesse trovarsi nei guai a causa di un default per debito sovrano, i necessari fondi di salvataggio sarebbero prontamente messi a disposizione. È quindi altamente improbabile che si verifichi un altro collasso del mercato interbancario.

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