Chris Van Es

Warum Europa automatische Haircuts braucht

MÜNCHEN – Nachdem die Länder der Europäischen Union bereits zugestimmt haben, die Darlehenskapazität ihres Luxemburger Fonds (EFSF) zur Rettung notleidender Staaten zu verdoppeln, diskutieren sie jetzt über die Bedingungen, unter denen die Gelder dieses Fonds zur Verfügung gestellt werden. Die entscheidende Frage ist, bis zu welchem Grad sich die Gläubiger an Rettungsmaßen mit  „Haircuts“, also Teilverlusten ihrer Forderungen, beteiligen müssen.

Vertreter von überschuldeten Ländern und von Ländern, deren Banken als Gläubiger stark exponiert sind, argumentieren, Haircuts würden das europäische Finanzsystem destabilisieren, indem sie Ansteckungseffekte erzeugen, die einer zweiten Lehman-Brothers-Krise gleichkommen. Doch die EEAG, ein europäischer Sachverständigenrat mit Ökonomen aus sieben Ländern, hat diese Ansicht in seinem letzten Bericht, der soeben in Brüssel veröffentlicht wurde, zurückgewiesen.

Die Gruppe argumentiert, eine Lehman-ähnliche Krise könne aus dem einfachen Grund nicht passieren, weil sie bereits passiert ist.  Im Oktober 2008, einen Monat nach dem Zusammenbruch von Lehman, einigten sich die G-8-Länder darauf, alle systemrelevanten  Banken zu retten, und sie errichteten  weltweit Rettungsschirme in Höhe von 4,9 Billionen EUR (6,7 Billionen USD). Diese Rettungsschirme sind heute großenteils noch intakt. Sollte eine systemrelevante Bank aufgrund eines Zahlungsausfalls bei Staatspapieren in Schwierigkeiten geraten, stehen die erforderlichen Rettungsmittel prompt zur Verfügung. Ein weiterer Zusammenbruch des Interbankenmarkts ist daher äußerst unwahrscheinlich.

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