¿Por qué vacila Angela Merkel?

MUNICH – “¿Dónde está Angela?” es la pregunta que The Economist formuló, cuando Nikolas Sarkozy, Gordon Brown y José Manuel Barroso se reunieron para preparar un plan europeo de estímulo económico sin que la Canciller Merkel estuviera presente. De hecho, Alemania es actualmente la aguafiestas en la competencia por proporcionar miles de millones para impedir un desmoronamiento de la economía mundial. ¿Por qué vacila tanto Alemania cuando se trata de programas de estímulo económico?

Una teoría popular es la de que, dada la orientación de los economistas alemanes, partidarios de la economía de la oferta, hay poco entusiasmo por las prescripciones keynesianas, propias de la economía de la demanda, pero ningún economista alemán se ha pronunciado en contra de un programa de estímulo económico y muchos son partidarios de él. Mientras que en los Estados Unidos la teoría keynesiana ha desaparecido en gran medida de los libros de texto, en Alemania sigue enseñándose por todas partes. Los economistas alemanes, a diferencia de sus colegas americanos, nunca han abandonado las políticas keynesianas, como modo de luchar contra los déficits de la demanda. Además, los políticos alemanes raras veces siguen los consejos de los economistas alemanes.

Una segunda hipótesis está más próxima de la verdad: el descenso de la actividad económica alemana hasta ahora no ha sido tan fuerte como en otros países.

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