默克尔为何迟疑不决?

    慕尼黑--当萨尔科奇、布朗和巴罗索在没有德国总理默克尔在场的情况下会面准备欧洲经济刺激计划的时候,英国经济学人杂志提出了“默克尔在哪里”的问题。确实,目前各国竞相提供数十亿计的资金来防止世界经济崩盘,德国就成了阻碍。在经济刺激上,德国为何如此迟疑呢?

    其中一个普通的解释是,德国经济学家信奉供应派学说,对凯恩斯学派需求导向的药方并不热衷。但是德国经济学家中没有一个站出来反对经济刺激计划,而且很多人还赞同经济刺激。凯恩斯理论已经基本上从美国的经济学教科书中消失,但是德国各地还在继续教授这一理论。与美国同行相比,德国经济学家们从来没有放弃过凯恩斯主义政策来作为解决需求赤字问题的一种途经。而且,德国政坛人物很少听取德国经济学家们的意见。

    第二个假设更为接近事实,那也就是德国经济下滑目前为止还并不像其他国家那样强烈。德国并非像英国、爱尔兰、西班牙以及法国那样形成房地产泡沫并且即将破裂。德国只是由于全球对德国产品需求下降而间接受到影响。这也就是为何商业周期中存在重要的时间差。

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