Non à la croissance économique autolimitative

MILAN – Au cours du temps, pays avancés et pays en développement ont expérimenté volontairement parfois, mais plus fréquemment sans le vouloir, différentes stratégies de croissance. Malheureusement beaucoup d'entre elles se sont révélées être des limitateurs ou des décélérateurs de croissance, des éléments de "développement précaire". Pour éviter de graves dommages et des redémarrages économiques difficiles nous devons identifier bien plus tôt ces modèles de croissance auto-limitative. Voici quelques-uns d'entre eux, tirés d'une liste qui va en s'allongeant.

Dans les pays en développement, la substitution des importations par des produits locaux pour faire redémarrer rapidement la diversification économique peut réussir au début, mais au bout d'un certain temps la productivité n'augmente plus suffisamment et l'avantage comparatif disparaît, ce qui met un coup d'arrêt à la croissance.

Les petites économies ouvertes étant naturellement spécialisées, elles sont vulnérables aux crises et à la volatilité des marchés. Mais quand on parvient à la diversification économique par le protectionnisme, son coût en terme de croissance et de niveau de vie finit par l'emporter sur ses avantages. Il est préférable de permettre la spécialisation et d'établir une protection sociale efficace en faveur des individus et des familles durant les périodes de transition économique. Cette "flexibilité structurelle" est mieux adaptée aux changements de grande ampleur exigés par l'évolution technique et économique rapide au niveau mondial.

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