La capacidad de resistencia de los mercados en ascenso

NUEVA YORK – Cuando la mayor parte del mundo está centrada en la inestabilidad económica y el crecimiento anémico en los países avanzados, los países en desarrollo, con la posible excepción de China, han recibido relativamente poca atención, pero, como grupo, las economías con mercados en ascenso se han visto afectadas negativamente por la reciente desaceleración en los países desarrollados. ¿Podrán recuperarse por sí solas?

Las más importantes economías en ascenso fueron los principales motores de crecimiento del mundo tras el estallido de la crisis financiera en 2008 y, hasta cierto punto, siguen siéndolo, pero su resistencia ha dependido siempre de su capacidad para engendrar un incremento suficiente de la demanda agregada a fin de apoyar su crecimiento, sin tener que compensar una gran pérdida de la demanda en los países desarrollados.

La combinación de un crecimiento insignificante (o incluso negativo) en Europa y una importante desaceleración del crecimiento en los Estados Unidos ha producido ahora esa pérdida, con lo que ha socavado las exportaciones de las economías en ascenso. Europa es un importante destino de las exportaciones para muchos países en desarrollo y el mayor mercado exterior de China. Este último países, a su vez, un importante mercado para los productos finales, los bienes intermedios (incluidos los utilizados para producir los productos acabados para la exportación) y los productos básicos. De modo, que el efecto dominó del estancamiento económico de Europa se ha extendido rápidamente al resto de Asia y a otros continentes.

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