La resilienza dei mercati emergenti

NEW YORK – In un contesto in cui gran parte del mondo è focalizzato sull’instabilità economica e una crescita debole nelle economie avanzate, i paesi in via di sviluppo (ad eccezione forse della Cina) hanno destato relativamente poco interesse negli ultimi tempi. Tuttavia, come gruppo, anche le economie dei mercati emergenti sono state influenzate negativamente dalla recente flessione dei paesi sviluppati. Saranno in grado di recuperare con le loro forze?

Le principali economie emergenti sono state il principale motore di crescita a seguito dello scoppio della crisi finanziaria del 2008, e, fino a un certo punto, lo sono ancora. Ma la loro capacità di ripresa è sempre stato un aspetto della loro abilità di creare uno sviluppo cumulativo della domanda aggregata sufficiente a sostenere la crescita senza dover compensare un eventuale calo consistente della domanda nei paesi sviluppati.

Una combinazione di un tasso di crescita trascurabile (o addirittura negativo) in Europa e di un importante rallentamento della crescita negli Stati Uniti ha creato questa diminuzione della domanda, indebolendo in tal modo le esportazioni delle economie emergenti. L’Europa è una delle destinazioni principali delle esportazioni di molti paesi emergenti e rappresenta il mercato più grande della Cina, che, a sua volta, è uno dei principali mercati dei prodotti finiti, semifiniti (compresi quelli utilizzati per le esportazioni di prodotti finiti) e dei beni. Gli effetti negativi derivanti dall’economia stagnante in Europa si sono quindi diffusi rapidamente nel resto dell’Asia ed oltre.

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