Résilience des pays émergents

NEW-YORK – L'attention de l'opinion publique étant focalisée sur l'instabilité économique et la croissance anémique des pays avancés, on ne s'est guère intéressé aux pays en développement, à l'exception peut-être de la Chine. Pourtant, considérés dans leur ensemble, les pays émergents ont subi les conséquences du récent ralentissement dans les pays développés. Seront-ils capables de rebondir d'eux-mêmes ?

Après l'éclatement de la crise financière en 2008, ils sont devenus le principal moteur de la croissance, et ils le sont encore dans une certaine mesure. Mais leur résilience a toujours été fonction de leur capacité à générer une demande agrégée incrémentale pour soutenir leur croissance, sans avoir à compenser un effondrement de la demande des pays développés.

Or  la croissance quasi nulle (voire négative) en Europe et le ralentissement significatif de la croissance aux USA ont entraîné une chute de la demande, ce qui affecte les exportations des pays émergents. L'Europe est la destination principale des exportations de nombre de pays émergents, elle constitue aussi le premier marché extérieur de la Chine. Et cette dernière est un marché de toute première importance pour les produits finis, les biens intermédiaires (dont ceux utilisés pour produire des produits finis destinés à l'exportation) et les matières premières. L'onde de choc du ralentissement économique européen s'est donc propagée rapidement au reste de l'Asie et au-delà.

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