新兴市场的复苏能力

发自纽约——全球大多数人都把注意力放在了发达国家的经济不稳和增长匮乏之上,而发展中国家(或许除了中国之外)所得到的关注则相对较少。但作为一个群体,新兴市场经济体遭受了最近发达国家经济下滑的负面影响。那么,这些国家又是否可以依靠自身的力量恢复过来呢?

几个大的新兴经济体在2008年金融危机爆发后成为了全球增长的主要引擎,而且至今在某种程度上依然如是。但它们的复苏能力一直都体现在其创造足够新增总需求以支撑自身增长的能力上,并不需要去补足发达国家大量流失的需求。

这种流失是在欧洲的微小(或甚至负)增长以及美国增长大幅下滑的联合作用下形成的,也使新兴经济体的出口遭到了打击。欧洲既是许多发展中国家的主要出口目的地,更是中国的最大国外市场。相应地,中国则是成品,(包括那些用来制成成品的)半成品和大宗商品的主要市场。欧洲经济停滞的连锁反应也因此迅速扩散到了亚洲其他地区甚至更广大的区域。

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