Cómo controlar la moneda en China

PEKÍN – Es indiscutible que China está emitiendo dinero de manera excesiva. Sin embargo, las razones detrás del crecimiento masivo de la liquidez en China – y de la estrategia más eficaz para su control – son menos obvias.

La última década en China ha sido una “edad de oro” de alto crecimiento y baja inflación. Desde el año 2003 al 2012, el crecimiento anual del PIB de China promedió 10,5%, mientras que los precios aumentaron anualmente en tan sólo un 3%. Sin embargo, la velocidad sin precedentes y la escala de la expansión monetaria de China siguen causando preocupación, ya que dicha expansión aún podría desencadenar una inflación elevada y conducir a burbujas de precios de activos, y provocar el crecimiento de la deuda y la salida de capitales.

Los datos del Banco Popular de China (BPC) muestran que a finales del año pasado, el agregado monetario M2 (oferta monetaria ampliada) de China se situó en ¥ 97,4 millones de millones (¥97.4 trillion) ($15,6 millones de millones de dólares), o el 188% del PIB. A modo de comparación, el M2 en los Estados Unidos (M2 in the United States) sólo asciende a aproximadamente el 63% del PIB. De hecho, según el Standard Chartered Bank, China ocupa el primer lugar (China ranks first) a nivel mundial tanto en términos de M2 total como en moneda recientemente emitida. En el año 2011, China dio cuenta de aproximadamente el 52% de la liquidez agregada del mundo.

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