放弃配额制度难在哪里?

发自香港——3月1日,中国国务院宣布了新一轮旨在通过遏制投机性需求控制房价的限制措施,其中包括在房价上涨过快的城市严格控制外地户籍人口购房,强制征收20%卖房资产所得税,并将第二套房首付比例设为70%,以及二套房贷相对基准利率上浮30%。

回顾一年多前,政府实施的上一轮购房限制措施只是短暂地打击了市场热情,却未能遏制房产价格继续上涨。同样,尽管最新的措施可能会发挥一定作用,比如让低利息导致狂热的中国房地产市场降降温,但从长期来看还是需要解决根本的货币政策缺陷。

为了控制货币供给,中国人民银行长期使用信贷配额作为对银行的“窗口指导”。这项政策源自于中央计划经济。三十年前的计划经济导致了人为的低物价,并进而导致了基本必需品和关键生产要素,比如粮食和钢材的短缺。其后随着市场机制在中国的引入及发展,催生了价格双轨制,使得那些有能力获得产品配额的人只需支付较低的价格。政府实际上在补贴双轨制下的“失败者”,比如城市居民和国有企业。但很快,市场价格的上涨导致了强劲的供给反应,并消除了人们对产品配额的需求。

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