China y la ansiedad ante la reforma

Pekín – Desde el año 2010, los círculos financieros mundiales se han obsesionado con la desaceleración económica de China. Sin embargo, mientras que el país apenas alcanzó la meta oficial de 7,5% de crecimiento anual del PIB en el segundo trimestre de este año – generando ansiedad significativa en todo el mundo – el Gobierno de China continúa aparentemente tranquilo, sin mostrar indicios acerca de que se encuentra planificando lanzar otro paquete de estímulo. ¿Realmente, tienen los líderes de China la situación bajo control?

De hecho, la postura del gobierno chino – basada en la “likonomía” del primer ministro Li Keqiang, que prioriza la reforma estructural frente a un rápido crecimiento del PIB – resultará ser la mejor opción para los intereses de China y el resto del mundo. Los problemas estructurales de China – incluyendo las restricciones a la movilidad laboral, un sistema financiero rígido y cargado de riesgos, y la excesiva dependencia de la inversión pública – están poniendo en peligro su estabilidad y desarrollo económico. Teniendo en cuenta que la tasa de crecimiento del PIB de China sigue siendo respetable en comparación con el resto del mundo, la necesidad de hacer hincapié en la reforma estructural es clara.

Pero, a pesar de las declaraciones bienintencionadas y las señales sobre ajustes para cerrar brechas, los nuevos líderes de China todavía no han establecido un plan de reforma concreto y audaz que sea capaz de resolver los problemas de fondo de la economía.

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