Paul Lachine

Por qué China ha hecho lo correcto con respecto a su moneda

BERKELEYTras un periodo de gran tensión entre Estados Unidos y China, que tuvo su punto culminante este mes entre rumores de una guerra comercial abierta, ahora es evidente que se acerca un viraje en la política cambiaria china. Finalmente, China está dispuesta a dejar que el renminbi reanude su lenta pero constante marcha ascendente. Ahora podemos esperar que se vuelva a revaluar con respecto al dólar, muy gradualmente, como lo hiciera entre 2005 y 2007.

Algunos observadores, entre ellos los que más temían una guerra comercial, parecen aliviados. Otros, que consideran que un renminbi sustancialmente subvaluado es un factor importante del desempleo estadounidense, se sentirán decepcionados por lo gradual del ajuste. Habrían preferido una brusca revaluación de quizás un 20% para generar un descenso claro del índice de desempleo.

Otros más desestiman  como irrelevante un giro en la política cambiaria china. Para ellos, el superávit de cuenta corriente de China y su reflejo, el déficit de cuenta corriente estadounidense, son el problema central. Argumentan que los balances de cuenta corriente reflejan los índices de ahorro e inversión nacionales. China tiene superávits externos porque su ahorro es mayor que su inversión. Estados Unidos tiene déficits externos debido a la insuficiencia de su ahorro interno, que en el pasado era el reflejo del alto gasto de los hogares, pero hoy se origina en un gobierno derrochador.

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