Paul Lachine

人民币渐进升值完全正确

伯克利——前一阵子,美中关系非常紧张,到4月初最严重的时候,差点爆发一场全面贸易战。目前,形势已有所缓和,中国即将调整汇率政策这一点,也已经明朗了。最终,中国准备让人民币重拾缓慢、稳步升值的脚步。我们现在可以预计,人民币将再度开始对美元渐进升值,就像20052007年时那样。

一部分观察家,尤其是那些最担心贸易战的人,应该可以放心了。但其他一些人,认为人民币低估是造成美国失业的一个重要因素,渐进升值会令他们失望。他们更希望见到人民币一下子升值20%,从而明显地遏制美国的失业上升势头。

还有一些人则认为,中国调整汇率政策是避重就轻。在他们看来,中国经常账户盈余和相应的美国经常账户赤字才是问题的关键。他们说经常账户平衡是国民储蓄投资率的反映。中国账上之所以有对外盈余,是因为其国民总储蓄超出其国民总投资。美国账上之所以是对外赤字,是因为其国民总储蓄不足——以前这得怪居民的过度开支,现在则是政府大手大脚的错。

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