Urban street in city in China.

中国没有在崩溃

伦敦—一个问题主导了今年国际货币基金组织(IMF)的秘鲁年会:世界刚刚把上一场金融危机平息下去,中国经济减速会引发一场新的金融危机吗?但这一问题背后的假设——中国是目前全球经济最弱的一环——颇可商榷。

显然,中国经历了一个动荡之夏,原因有三:经济疲软、金融恐慌以及对这些问题的政策应对。这些问题中的每一个都不会威胁到世界经济,但危险源自这三个问题自我加强的互动:疲软的经济数据导致金融动荡,金融动荡导致政策错误,政策错误反过来助长更多的金融恐慌、经济疲软和政策错误。

这一自我加强的金融反馈对于传播全球经济传染病的效力远远大于常规商业或贸易风险暴露,2008—2009年的经验已经说明了这一点。现在的问题是,整个夏天始于中国的恶性循环是否会持续下去。

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