Urban street in city in China.

الصين لن تنهار

لندن ــ في اجتماع صندوق النقد الدولي السنوي هذا العام في بيرو، هيمن سؤال واحد: هل يشعل الانكماش الاقتصادي في الصين شرارة أزمة مالية جديدة بعد أن ودع العالم الأزمة الأخيرة للتو؟ بيد أن الافتراض الكامن وراء هذا السؤال ــ وهو أن الصين أصبحت الآن الحلقة الأضعف في الاقتصاد العالمي ــ موضع شك إلى حد كبير.

من المؤكد أن الصين شهدت صيفاً مضطربا، نظراً لثلاثة عوامل: الضعف الاقتصادي، والذعر المالي، والاستجابة السياسية لهاتين المشكلتين. ورغم أن أياً من هذه العوامل كان ليهدد الاقتصاد العالمي في حد ذاته، فإن الخطر كان نابعاً من تفاعل ذاتي التعزيز بين ثلاثتها: فالبيانات الاقتصادية الضعيفة تؤدي إلى الاضطرابات المالية، والتي تستحث الأخطاء السياسية التي تغذي بدورها المزيد من الذعر المالي، والضعف الاقتصادي، والأخطاء السياسية.

الواقع أن هذه الآلية الاسترجاعية المالية تصبح أقوى كثيراً في نقل العدوى الاقتصادية العالمية من التعرض التجاري العادي أو التعرض للتجارة العالمية، كما أدرك العالم في الفترة 2008-2009. والسؤال الآن هو ما إذا كانت الحلقة المفرغة التي بدأت في الصين خلال فصل الصيف سوف تستمر.

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