没有泥浆的砖

美国剑桥—上个月,中国新国家主席习近平选择莫斯科为出国访问第一站。他和俄罗斯总统普京商定了一系列协议,接着来到南非德班出席第五届“金砖国家”峰会,与印度、巴西和南非领导人宣布将成立能够对世界银行和IMF主导地位形成挑战的新开发银行。五国领导人在讲话中提到了世界秩序的变迁,习近平表示“金砖国家发展潜力无穷。”

看起来金砖国家终于成熟了。三年前我对金砖国家持怀疑态度,现在亦然,尽管最新的峰会看上去颇为成功。

近12年前,高盛首席经济学家奥尼尔(Jim O’Neil)创造了“金砖”一词描述巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国四个“新兴市场”。从2000年到2008年,这四个国家占全球产出比重大幅上升,从16%升至22%(以购买力平价衡量),在随后的全球衰退中,它们的经济表现也好于平均水平。

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