Terminen ya con la austeridad

EDIMBURGO – En las últimas semanas, los comentarios sobre la recuperación en ciernes de la zona del euro han ganado impulso y los índices clave indicarían la expansión de los países centrales –datos que muchos citan como evidencia de que finalmente la austeridad está funcionando. Los fondos de inversión en mercados de dinero de Estados Unidos están volviendo, aunque cautelosamente, a financiar la deuda bancaria europea. Incluso Goldman Sachs está abalanzándose sobre acciones europeas en una actitud alcista. ¿Pero está verdaderamente la recuperación en camino?

Los cínicos recuerdan que la recuperación europea supuestamente iba a tener lugar ya en el cuarto trimestre de 2010 y que todas las proyecciones del Fondo Monetario Internacional desde entonces han predicho una recuperación «para fines de este año». En lugar de ello, el PBI ha colapsado y se espera una contracción de las economías española e italiana cercana al 2 % este año. La economía portuguesa va rumbo a una reducción de más del 2 % y el producto griego caerá más del 4 %.

Además, el desempleo en la zona del euro se ha disparado para alcanzar una tasa promedio de aproximadamente el 12 %, con un desempleo juvenil de más del 50 % en los países de la periferia, que implica pérdida de talento y erosión de la base impositiva en el largo plazo. Y, a pesar del aumento del desempleo, el crecimiento de la productividad en la zona del euro es decididamente negativo.

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