Terminen ya con la austeridad

EDIMBURGO – En las últimas semanas, los comentarios sobre la recuperación en ciernes de la zona del euro han ganado impulso y los índices clave indicarían la expansión de los países centrales –datos que muchos citan como evidencia de que finalmente la austeridad está funcionando. Los fondos de inversión en mercados de dinero de Estados Unidos están volviendo, aunque cautelosamente, a financiar la deuda bancaria europea. Incluso Goldman Sachs está abalanzándose sobre acciones europeas en una actitud alcista. ¿Pero está verdaderamente la recuperación en camino?

Los cínicos recuerdan que la recuperación europea supuestamente iba a tener lugar ya en el cuarto trimestre de 2010 y que todas las proyecciones del Fondo Monetario Internacional desde entonces han predicho una recuperación «para fines de este año». En lugar de ello, el PBI ha colapsado y se espera una contracción de las economías española e italiana cercana al 2 % este año. La economía portuguesa va rumbo a una reducción de más del 2 % y el producto griego caerá más del 4 %.

Además, el desempleo en la zona del euro se ha disparado para alcanzar una tasa promedio de aproximadamente el 12 %, con un desempleo juvenil de más del 50 % en los países de la periferia, que implica pérdida de talento y erosión de la base impositiva en el largo plazo. Y, a pesar del aumento del desempleo, el crecimiento de la productividad en la zona del euro es decididamente negativo.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/LQYYmuG/es;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.