Beendet die Austerität jetzt

EDINBURGH – In den jüngsten Wochen gab es zunehmend Gerede über das Einsetzen eines zarten Konjunkturaufschwungs in der Eurozone, und wichtige Kennzahlen deuten auf ein Wachstum in den Kernländern hin. Viele zitieren diese Daten als Beleg dafür, dass die Austerität endlich funktioniert. Erste US-Geldmarktfonds sind (wenn auch vorsichtig) dabei, die Finanzierung der europäischen Bankschulden wieder aufzunehmen. Selbst Goldman Sachs investiert derzeit optimistisch in großem Umfang in europäische Aktien. Aber ist wirklich eine Konjunkturerholung im Gange?

Zyniker erinnern daran, dass sich eine europäische Erholung angeblich schon im vierten Quartal 2010 verfestigen sollte und dass seitdem jede einzelne Prognose des Internationalen Währungsfonds einen Aufschwung „bis Jahresende“ vorhergesagt hat. Stattdessen ist das BIP eingebrochen; die spanische und die italienische Volkswirtschaft sollen in diesem Jahr um fast 2% schrumpfen. Portugals Wirtschaft dürfte um über 2% zurückgehen, und Griechenlands Produktionsleistung wird um mehr als 4% sinken.

Zudem ist die Arbeitslosigkeit in der Eurozone steil angestiegen und beträgt inzwischen durchschnittlich rund 12%, wobei über 50% Jugendarbeitslosigkeit in den Peripherieländern einen langfristigen Talentverlust und eine Erosion der Steuerbasis andeuten. Und trotz des Anstiegs der Arbeitslosigkeit ist das Produktivitätswachstum in der Eurozone eindeutig negativ.

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