储蓄模式为何如此迥异?

发自北京——自从新兴市场在1990年代初整合进全球经济以来出现了三大引人注目的趋势:核心发达工业国与外围新兴国家在个人储蓄率上的分化(前者大幅上升而后者稳步下降);两个区域之间的巨额全球不平衡;以及全球各地的利率下调。而当全球不平衡状况吸引了许多观察者的目光之时,只有很少人尝试去解释世界各地储蓄模式的分化。

在1988年,中美两国的家庭储蓄率基本持平,大概在5%左右。但到了2007年,中国家庭的储蓄率已经上升到令人吃惊的30%,而美国仅有2.5%。这个模式在过去20年间其他发达工业国与新兴市场的比较中是不具备典型性的(表一)。

储蓄行为总是与利率的变化相对应,而后者在过去20年间持续走低到今时今日的破纪录水平。但在这些完全融入世界资本市场的全球化经济体之间为何会出现如此显著——往往相反的——储蓄模式差异呢?

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