Le long mystère des faibles taux d’intérêt

CAMBRIDGE – Alors que les décideurs et les investisseurs continuent à s'inquiéter des risques posés par les taux d'intérêt mondiaux ultra-faibles actuels, les économistes universitaires continuent à débattre sur les causes sous-jacentes. A l'heure actuelle, tout le monde se range désormais sous l’une ou l’autre version de la déclaration de 2005 de Ben Bernanke, président de la Réserve fédérale américaine, selon laquelle un « excès d'épargne mondiale » est à la racine du problème. Mais les économistes ne s'entendent pas sur l’origine de cet excès, combien de temps la situation va-t-elle durer, et, plus fondamentalement, est-ce qu’il s’agit d’une bonne chose.

Le discours original de Bernanke soulignait plusieurs facteurs – certains réduisant la demande d'épargne mondiale et d'autres en augmentant l'offre. Dans les deux cas, les taux d'intérêt devaient baisser pour équilibrer les marchés obligataires mondiaux. Il expliquait que la crise financière asiatique de la fin des années 1990 avait fait s’effondrer la demande vorace d'investissement de la région, tout en poussant les gouvernements asiatiques à accumuler des actifs liquides à titre de couverture contre une autre crise. Bernanke soulignait également une augmentation de l'épargne pension de la population vieillissante en Allemagne et au Japon, ainsi que de l’épargne des pays exportateurs de pétrole, qui connaissaient une croissance rapide de leur population et une incertitude sur les revenus du pétrole à long terme.

La politique monétaire, soit dit en passant, n'avait pas une place importante dans le diagnostic de Bernanke. Comme la plupart des économistes, il estime que, si les décideurs tentent de maintenir les taux d'intérêt à des niveaux artificiellement bas pendant trop longtemps, la demande et l'inflation finiront par monter en flèche. Donc, si l'inflation est faible et stable, on ne peut pas reprocher aux banques centrales de maintenir des taux de long terme trop bas.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/auMhrlf/fr;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.